Economy resilient despite trade war

After China released its third-quarter data, The Wall Street Journal headline sounded a warning: "China's economic growth slowest in decades." CNN seconded: "China's economic growth drops to lowest level since 1992." Reuters extended the timeline: "China's GDP growth grinds to near 30-year low as tariffs hit production."

The fallacy in these headlines is that they mistake business cycles for secular trends and vice versa. When countries industrialize, they enjoy relatively high growth. After industrialization, growth rates decelerate. China is no exception.

In reality, much of the recent quarterly data in China and other major economies has been penalized for the same reason: the US-launched trade wars and geopolitics, which foster diminished global economic prospects.