Lessons from G20 summit: Trade is paramount, but long, bumpy road ahead

The outcome of the much-anticipated Xi-Trump meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka was largely in line with our expected central case, with the United States and China agreeing to resume talks and not escalate the dispute further.

The language was more positive than we expected, and we think markets will react in a limited but positive manner.

The June 29 meeting itself lasted 40 minutes, 10 minutes shorter than the allotted time, suggesting smoother proceedings than anticipated. President Donald Trump later tweeted that he had "a great meeting" with Xi that was "far better than expected".