More births won't solve aging problem

A popular view is that the one-child policy in the past acted like a huge dam on a river, holding back desired fertility. So, many people expected that as soon as the dam gates were opened, a baby boom would follow thereby greatly increasing the number of births and helping China to meet the associated challenges of an aging population and shrinking labor force.

Hence the surprise among many over a "green book" released last week by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences that said China's population will show negative growth from 2028 if the country's fertility rate remains, as some predict, at its current low level.

Upon closer inspection of the most recent available data, it seems there was an increase in the number of second births in China, even if it was much lower than anticipated. However, this was offset by a relatively large decrease in the number of first births. In short, the impact of the two-child policy appears muted.