Let's celebrate reform's 40th anniversary

As momentous historic events go, China's reform period was relatively unheralded. Little did anyone realize at the time - probably no one, in fact - that 1978 would enter the history books as one of the most important years in modern history.

We should not be surprised. At the time, the Chinese economy was a mere 5 percent of the size of the US economy, with a per capita GDP roughly on a par with that of Zambia, lower than half of the Asian average and lower than two-thirds of the African average. China's impact on the world was very limited.

Although its growth rate had averaged a little more than 5 percent from 1960 to 1978, it compared rather unfavorably with economies such as Japan and the Republic of Korea. For the majority of the world's population, China was largely forgotten or ignored, usually both. Even in China, there was little anticipation that the country stood on the eve of a remarkable transformation. When Chairman Mao Zedong died in 1976, China was relatively isolated. The"cultural revolution" (1966-76) continued to cast a long shadow, the leadership was divided, and Deng Xiaoping had only begun to emerge as China's key leader. Notwithstanding the unquestioned achievements made since 1949, the future did not look particularly promising.