The world economy's risky recovery

One year ago, I predicted that the most distinctive aspect of 2017 would be uncertainty, fueled by, among other things, Donald Trump's election as president of the United States, and the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union. The only certainty, it seemed, was uncertainty - and that the future could become very messy.

As it turned out, although 2017 was not a particularly great year, it was far better than many had feared. Trump proved every bit as bombastic and erratic as expected. Anyone who paid attention only to his incessant tweets might think the US was teetering between a trade war and a nuclear war. Trump would insult Sweden one day, Australia the next, and then the EU - and then support neo-Nazis at home. And the members of his plutocratic Cabinet rival one another in terms of conflicts of interest, incompetence, and sheer nastiness.

There have been some worrisome regulatory rollbacks, especially concerning environmental protection, not to mention the many hate-driven acts that Trump's bigotry may have encouraged. But, so far, the combination of the US institutions and the Trump administration's incompetence has meant that there is (fortunately) a yawning gap between the president's ugly rhetoric and what he has actually accomplished.