War can be avoided, but further restraint needed

If ordering the missile strike on Syrian targets, dropping the "mother of all bombs" in Afghanistan, and assembling a war-ready armada off the Korean Peninsula were all meant to convey Donald Trump's message that things are different with him in the White House, what happened Saturday might well be Kim Jong-un's way of saying "message received".

Either because it chose to resort to a less provocative form of show of defiance, or it is technically not ready, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea did not carry out the widely anticipated sixth nuclear test. Instead, it launched another projectile, type unidentified, which failed.

Given the DPRK leader's pledge of "ultra-toughness" in response to the US' "toughness", he had to simultaneously avoid being seen as softening under US pressure and crossing the perceived US redline - conducting a new nuclear test. Firing a missile of some sort was thus a calculated move, and making it without prompting a furious response from Washington surely qualifies as a win to some degree from Kim's perspective.