Lower defence budget reflects confidence

If China's 7.6 percent military budget increase last year, the lowest since 2011, raised eyebrows, then the lower increase of only 7 percent announced for 2017 raised a question: Will such a low defence budget become the new normal in years to come?

The answer is probably yes. China's economy has slowed. Premier Li Keqiang anticipates GDP growth of 6.5 percent this year. For the People's Liberation Army, defence spending has to go in tandem with national economic development. This is a principle that has been upheld since former leader Deng Xiaoping told the PLA in 1985, "The real modernization of the weaponry of the military will only be possible when the national economy has laid a sound basis for it."

Will a 7 percent budget increase affect the PLA's capacity building? Yes, but in a limited way. Thanks to the PLA's strenuous modernization efforts and China's sustained investment in its defense industry over the decades, the PLA has been able to advance by leaps and bounds. The ongoing military reform, the most profound in the history of the PLA in terms of vision and audacity, will bring revolutionary changes to the PLA and make it leaner and stronger. Simply put, the PLA now can afford to have a lower defence budget.