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Finding a strong anchor for the economy

By Shen Lan | China Daily | Updated: 2016-12-14 07:33

With the support from expansionary fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy, we (at Standard Chartered) expect China's growth momentum to pick up mildly in the fourth quarter, leading to a 6.8 percent year-on-year growth for the whole of 2016.

For 2017, we expect the government to prioritize growth stability. With Donald Trump becoming United States president, the United Kingdom starting the Brexit process, and major European countries going to the polls, 2017 will be a year of intense external uncertainty for China. Domestically, China's economy continues to face headwinds and rising financial risks. So, we expect the government to give high priority to political, economic and social stability, and maintain its growth target of 6.5-7.0 percent for 2017.

On the bright side, the service sector - which accounts for more than 50 percent of the economy - has been growing consistently at 7-8 percent over the past year, contributing about 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth. In addition, private-sector investment appears to be recovering after Producer Price Index turned from deflation to inflation in September. Recent Purchasing Managers' Indexes have risen, too.

Finding a strong anchor for the economy

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