Need to avoid the trap rising powers fall into

The basic logic of interaction between a rising power and an incumbent power is worth examining. Throughout history, rising powers have tended to benefit from limited prods and have therefore shown no willingness to reduce the momentum toward an ultimate conflict. And incumbent powers, with their strength in decline, have tended to act withdrawn or make limited concessions but, in many cases, they have eventually fought back.

Rising powers have inclined toward disregarding or making light of what Karl von Clausewitz called "culminating point of victory", incumbent powers, on the other hand, have tended to ignore or procrastinate defining "bottom lines for concession".

Such a scenario may begin to emerge over the South China Sea issue.