Tribunal ruling will destabilize region

Expected on July 12, the ruling by the Hague-based arbitral tribunal on a case filed by the Philippines in 2013 will be ultra vires. It will also open a can of worms, triggering a floodgate of abusive lawsuits by many countries. It will take the luster off the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea's till-now growing cachet. More alarmingly, it will put peace in the South China Sea at risk, and potentially destabilize the astoundingly successful Asia-Pacific region.

And being ultra vires, the ruling will be null and void. UNCLOS specifically excludes from its jurisdiction all issues of territorial sovereignty and maritime demarcation, restricting itself to interpretation or application of its regulations. That the Philippines has camouflaged its case under the cloak of generation of entitlements to islands does not hide the fact that its dispute with China is indeed about territorial sovereignty and maritime demarcation. Legally speaking there is no dispute as Beijing and Manila have not even formally discussed the specific claims raised in the latter's submission to the tribunal.

Besides, Article 281 of UNCLOS clearly mentions that the convention applies only if the parties have not agreed to seek settlement of the dispute. While the Philippines has not formally discussed with China the claims it has submitted to the tribunal, it has jointly issued a series of bilateral agreements with China and signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, affirming that disputes will be settled through negotiations. The tribunal's opinion that the above does not constitute an agreement is deeply flawed.