HK's choice between mainland and despair

Hong Kong faces great economic uncertainty and unprecedented market volatility, and given the Brexit chills, analysts expect a contraction. In fact, John Tsang Chun-wah, the Hong Kong Special Administration Region's financial secretary, has warned that the city's economy faces its "worst time in 20 years". Growth has more than halved to about 2.5 percent over the past five years.

The writing has been on the wall for Hong Kong since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, yet critical decisions have been delayed. The SAR's old growth drivers are still necessary but not enough to propel growth, because the West can no longer absorb Asian imports, and the Chinese mainland's economic growth has slowed down.

Last spring, concerns about Hong Kong's economy led some rating agencies to downgrade their outlook to negative, after doing the same for the mainland. But while the mainland can still rely on catch-up growth, Hong Kong's aging economy has to adjust to stagnating growth and income polarization.