Reasonable to reject arbitration

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is expected to rule on the unilateral arbitration case submitted by the Philippines on its territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea in a few weeks.

Despite Beijing's consistent stance that the South China Sea islands and reefs mentioned in the arbitration case do not fall into the Philippines' territory and it is fully within its rights not to participate in the case, Beijing should brace itself for fending off international pressure following the ruling, since it is widely believed that the ruling may be unfavorable to China.

However, the numerous restrictions the court faces also mean China should not be over-pessimistic about its ruling. For example, the court enjoys no jurisdiction over sovereignty disputes or maritime demarcation, and China declared in 2006 that it excluded compulsory arbitration under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.