Current climate treaties a lot of hot air

Paris is hosting the 21st global climate conference, and there are high hopes that negotiators will agree on a carbon-cutting treaty. But adding up the climate effects and costs of carbon-cutting commitments shows that there is something very wrong with this approach.

In a peer-reviewed research paper, I looked at the promises governments have committed to ahead of Paris (their so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) for the years 2016-2030. These are what the global treaty will be based on.

By running this data through internationally recognized climate models, I found that the promises will cut global temperatures by just 0.05 degrees Celsius by 2100.China's contribution would be a 0.014 Creduction by 2100.