Fertility is not tool to tackle 'aging' problem

A large number of Chinese couples are choosing to have only one child even when they can have two. What does this say about further reform of the family planning policy?

True, there is a "risk" that further reform would lead to a "baby boom", which may have a destabilizing effect on public services in the short and medium term. But studies on fertility suggest that the ideal number of children among poorer, rural residents is fast approaching that of richer, urban residents. This suggests that further reform is unlikely to lead to a major "baby boom".

On the individual level, however, being legally able to have children is a major issue for thousands of families. Evidence seems to suggest that further reform would enable enough couples to fulfill their dreams of having two children, but without causing a destabilizing "baby boom". Therefore, it appears a universal two-child policy is a logical next step in the reform process.