Population policy now a problem not a solution

For decades China has pursued policies intended to slow population growth by reducing childbearing. Slowly, attention is shifting to the dangers of super-low fertility, population decline, and rapid aging. Recent changes in population policy do not match the new demographic reality, however. Low fertility threatens to undermine China's economic success, while population policy continues to discourage childbearing. A new approach is needed and without delay.

The response to the new policy allowing some couples to have two births has been modest. But even if the change were universally applied, a two-child policy is guaranteed to produce fertility well below replacement fertility. Some couples are unable to have children, some will experience the death of a child, and some will choose to have only one or none. Achieving an average of two births per woman is impossible unless some women have more than two children balancing those who have fewer.

This important point is illustrated by the experience of the United States where fertility is close to replacement level. Women who were 40 years old in 2010 had essentially completed their childbearing with 2.07 births on average. Only one-third had two births, however, while one-third had one or none and one-third had three or more. Capping fertility at two births per woman would have reduced average births per woman to only 1.5, pushing the US from replacement fertility to super-low fertility.