When unsure, play probabilities

Agnes de Mille, a former dancer and choreographer, said, "Living is a form of not being sure, not knowing what next or how. ... We guess. We may be wrong, but we take leap after leap in the dark."

At the bridge table, we do have to guess occasionally, but more often there are sufficient clues to make the right choice clear.

In today's deal, cover the South and West hands. South is in four spades. West leads the heart two. How should East plan the defense?