There's a missing ingredient in oil's recovery

Oil bulls who've cheered a rebound of 40 percent from a six-year low should take heed: Unless demand accelerates, the rally is in danger.

The omens aren't good. The US government expects global consumption to grow next year at less than half the rate of 2010, when the world was emerging from a previous recession. The growth is insufficient to close the gap with rising supply, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest energy producer.

The last time oil crashed, during the 2008 financial crisis, China's appetite for commodities seemed insatiable, and powered prices higher. This time, Chinese fuel use is growing at half the rate of the past decade, and sliding US shale output could reverse as prices rise, smothering the gains.