States try to predict inmates' future crimes

US states are trying to reduce prison populations with secretive new psychological assessments to predict which inmates will commit future crimes and who might be safe to release, despite serious problems and high-profile failures, an Associated Press investigation found.

The programs are part of a national, data-driven movement to drive down prison populations, reduce recidivism and save billions. They include questionnaires, often with more than 100 questions about an offender's education, family, income, job status, history of moving, parents' arrest history - even whether he or she has a phone. A score is affixed to each answer and the result helps shape how the offender will be supervised in the system or released from custody.

Used for crimes ranging from petty theft to serial murders, the questionnaires come with their own set of risks.