Get ready for a three-year bull market

The Chinese mainland stock market may have suffered its biggest loss on Monday, but rebounded on Wednesday. 2015 is set to be the first of what is likely to be a three-year bull run for Chinese equities.

We (at Nomura) have noted, "data on margin financing activities show that the year-end surge in A-shares was partially fuelled by borrowed money. This is a risk factor to consider as we head into the expected bull run of Chinese equities, given that such leverage positions are likely to be shaken out in occasional market pullbacks, which could aggravate declines in stock indices." The latest sharp correction in A-shares serves as a fresh reminder that one is only good as one's trade can last.

There will be further pullback and consolidation, led by financials, in the MSCI-China index during a good part of the first quarter of 2015. But such a correction is not inconsistent with our bullish outlook for three years.