Population policy change needs more moves

The latest change in the family planning policy which allows couples to have a second child if one (or both) of them is the only child of his/her parents is just more than a year old. The rationale of the policy shift was to ensure the "long-term balanced development" of the population in the face of projections of further decline in the fertility rate, a shrinking of the overall population and rapid aging. It was forecast that the change would lead to an extra 1 million to 2 million births per year.

Figures from the National Health and Family Planning Commission suggest that by the end of December nearly 1 million couples had sought permission to have a second child, and about 920,000 of them had been given the go-ahead. However, many forecasts from around the country are being made smaller, and there is much uncertainty about how many of these couples will actually go on to have their second child.

In some ways, this should come as little surprise. National and local surveys have repeatedly shown that many couples intend to have only one child despite being eligible to have a second. The stated reasons for this preference for small families are consistent: economic pressure. This can be divided into "direct" and "indirect" costs.