Brace for a baby boom

Allowing couples, one or both of whom is/are the only child, to have two children is one of the most important decisions taken by the Third Plenum of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee. The new policy, however, has not been applied by all the provinces at the same time. Zhejiang province was the first to implement it on Jan 17, about two months after it was announced, while Henan province was the last to put it into practice, on June 3.

The National Health and Family Planning Commission data show that till the end of September, more than 800,000 couples across the country had applied to the family planning authorities to have a second child. Going by the data, until the end of March 2015, more than 1.1 million couples would be eligible to have a second child, and 1 million to 1.2 million births are expected in the first year after the implementation of the new policy.

And since the policy's effect would be hysteretic, the birth rate peak will appear in the second or third year after the Third Plenum's announcement. By then, 2 million births could be expected in a year. Considering the number of applications to have a second child is roughly equal to the expected newborn population next year, the current situation is basically in line with expectations.