N. America to export energy by 2020

The world's energy market will change dramatically around 2020, when North America will shift from a major energy importer to a net exporter, according to a report released on Tuesday by Exxon Mobil Corp.

In its annual energy forecast, Exxon said North America is expected to become a net exporter of liquids by 2020 as production from tight oil, natural gas liquids and oil sands grows.

Much of this oil could be shipped abroad as demand for liquids grows in the Asia and Pacific region. Exxon predicts the region's net imports will rise by nearly 80 percent through 2040.

North America is also expected to see strong gains in natural gas production as the fuel becomes more important to the global economy.

Unconventional gas production in the region is expected to triple by 2040, and North America is expected to surpass the combined output of Russia and the Caspian region as the largest gas-producing area.

Exxon also predicted significant growth in the global middle class, expansion of emerging economies and an additional 2 billion people in the world contributing to a 35 percent increase in energy demand by 2040.

As demand increases, the world will continue to become more efficient in its energy use, according to the report titled 2015 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.

Without efficiency gains across economies worldwide, energy demand from 2010 to 2040 would be headed toward a 140 percent increase instead of the 35 percent forecast in the report.

Wind, solar and biofuels are expected to be the fastest-growing energy sources, increasing about 6 percent a year on average through 2040, when they will be approaching 4 percent of global energy demand.

Renewable energy in total will account for about 15 percent of energy demand in 2040. Nuclear energy, one of the fastest-growing energy sources, is expected to nearly double from 2010 to 2040, with growth in the Asia Pacific region, led by China, accounting for about 75 percent of the increase.

(China Daily 12/11/2014 page10)