Climate change targets put at risk, says IEA report

Climate change targets are at risk because fossil fuels are set to meet most of the increased global demand for energy, and conflicts could wreak havoc with supplies, according to a report released on Wednesday.

"The global energy system is in danger of falling short of the hopes and expectations placed upon it," the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2014 report.

The Paris-based body, which advises industrial oil-consuming nations, believes global energy demand will grow by 37 percent by 2040, with fossil fuels key to meeting the increased demand despite concerns about global warming.

It warned that global energy security is at risk in the oil market as "reliance grows on a relatively small number of producers".

It noted that the Middle East "remains the only large source of low-cost oil", but conflict in the region "has rarely been greater since the oil shocks in the 1970s" that left consuming countries desperately short of supplies.

While oil prices are currently at four-year lows, the agency sees them rising as demand increases from 90 million barrels per day in 2013 to 104 mbd in 2040.

It added that higher prices and new policies will gradually constrain the pace of their consumption and reduce their weight in overall energy use.

This view is shared by leading oil producers. Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted that fossil fuels - oil, gas and coal - will still "play the leading role in satisfying world energy needs", but will dip from 81.6 percent to 78.4 percent of total energy consumption.

The IEA says natural gas will see the fastest rate of growth among the fossil fuels, with demand increasing by more than half to make it the leading fuel in the energy mix of the OECD major industrialized nations by 2030.

The dispute between Russia and Ukraine over a separatist insurgency has reignited concerns about gas security, especially in European markets.

The IEA noted those fears, but said they were partly allayed by a growing number of suppliers, and that the alternative of "liquefied natural gas offers some protection against the risk of supply disruptions".

As for coal, while the supply is abundant and secure, "its future use is constrained by measures to tackle pollution and reduce CO2 emissions," it said.

The share of fossil fuels in energy consumption will drop to just under three-quarters by 2040, but their impact on global warming and climate change is undiminished.

(China Daily 11/13/2014 page12)