Support grows for Scottish independence

By Reuters in Edinburgh and London | China Daily | Updated: 2014-09-03 09:33

A poll showing support for Scottish independence at its highest ever level threw the fate of the United Kingdom into question on Tuesday, just two weeks before Scots vote on whether to secede.

The poll by YouGov showed the unionist lead had shrunk to 6 percentage points from 22 a month ago as support for independence jumped to 47 percent in August, suggesting a major shift in opinion ahead of the Sept 18 referendum.

After months of polls showing nationalists heading for defeat, the YouGov poll raises for the first time a credible prospect that secessionists could achieve their goal of breaking the 307-year-old union with England.

"A 'Yes' victory is now a real possibility," YouGov President Peter Kellner, one of Britain's most respected pollsters, said.

Polls show different levels of support for the unionist campaign. Although none have shown the independence camp in the lead, the sudden surge indicated by the poll electrified Britain's political class after its summer break.

A vote to break away would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about currency, the national debt, North Sea oil and the future of Britain's nuclear submarine base in Scotland ahead of independence, which is penciled in for March 24, 2016.

If Scots vote to leave the United Kingdom, British Prime Minister David Cameron would likely face calls to resign ahead of a national election in May 2015, while Labour's chances of gaining a majority could be scuttled if it lost its Scottish lawmakers.

Close finish

YouGov's Kellner, 67, said the poll data were so astounding that when he first saw the result, he double-checked to see if there had been a sampling error. But he said that after checking the data, he was certain a real movement had taken place.

"When I first saw our data, I wanted to make sure the movement was real," he said. "I am certain it is."

The poll was carried out from Thursday to Monday, with 1,063 people questioned.

Excluding undecided voters and those not intending to vote, the poll showed support for keeping the union at 53 percent against 47 percent seeking independence.

Undecided voters - 8 percent in the poll - will be the key in what Kellner predicted would be a close vote. Two percent did not intend to vote.

It was the first time YouGov has showed "Yes" support above 40 percent and "No" support below 50 percent. About 4 million Scottish residents have a vote in the referendum, so the poll suggests that 320,000 voters have not made up their minds.

"The 'Yes' campaign has both gained converts and secured a 2-to-1 lead among people who were undecided and have now taken sides," Kellner said.

"A close finish looks likely," he said.

Supporters of the Labour party, traditionally the dominant political force in Scotland, had become more supportive of independence, while economic worries about the prospect of independence had diminished, YouGov said.