Expectations low for Geneva 2 talks

Setting up a transitional governing body is a difficult objective: experts

Expectations are low for this week's Syria peace talks in Geneva as violence continues unabated in the embattled Middle East country, US experts said.

"Low expectations surrounding the talks are appropriate given the iffy prospects for any meaningful progress," said Wayne White, former deputy director of the US State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office.

He added that bringing together the two warring sides in Syria is the main reason the talks have been repeatedly postponed, finally beginning this week in Montreux before they'll move to Geneva.

The objective of the talks is to set up a transitional governing body that would put a stop to the fighting that has plagued the war-torn nation for three years and resulted in 100,000 deaths. But getting all rebel factions on board at this stage is a tall order, if it's possible at all. That is the main hurdle, experts said.

Indeed, only one coalition of rebels, largely confined to northwest Syria near Aleppo, has supported the main opposition leadership in exile, the Syrian National Coalition, in its decision to attend the peace talks. And most of the SNC is attending under heavy US and Western pressure, White said.

Moreover, while some rebel factions are demanding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down - with some opposing attendance if Assad does not do so - Assad's government knows it holds the upper hand militarily and has no reason to accept such terms, White said.

David Pollock, a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he was skeptical that the conference would achieve any meaningful results.

"The only likely outcome will be some limited cease-fire or humanitarian relief, at best," he said. "Even that will probably not be very lasting or effective on the ground."

But other experts believe diplomacy is the only way out of the current impasse, with a military solution unlikely amid brutal fighting that continues with no end in sight.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday reiterated China's stance for a political settlement, calling for continued efforts to keep the negotiations going. Wang made the remarks while discussing the peace talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday night.

The peace conference was initiated by Washington and Moscow in May.

China hopes that the negotiations are not just launched, but more importantly, pushed forward, Wang said, adding that Beijing put forward on Monday five principles for a political settlement.

RAND Corporation Senior Policy Analyst Alireza Nader said that despite low expectations for this week's meetings, diplomacy remains the best option for resolving the Syrian crisis, especially given that neither side seems able to win a decisive military victory.

(China Daily 01/23/2014 page11)