The great malaise drags on
There's something dismal about writing year-end roundups in the half decade since the eruption of the 2008 global financial crisis. Yes, we avoided a Great Depression II, but only to emerge into a "great malaise", with barely increasing incomes for a large proportion of citizens in advanced economies. We can expect more of the same in 2014.
In the United States, median incomes have continued their seemingly relentless decline; for male workers, income has fallen to levels below those attained more than 40 years ago. Europe's double-dip recession ended in 2013, but no one can responsibly claim that recovery has followed. More than 50 percent of young people in Spain and Greece remain unemployed. According to the International Monetary Fund, Spain can expect unemployment to be above 25 percent for years to come.
The real danger for Europe is that a sense of complacency may set in. As the year passed, one could feel the pace of vital institutional reforms in the eurozone slowing. For example, the monetary union needs a real banking union - including not just common supervision, but also common deposit insurance and a common resolution mechanism - and Eurobonds, or some similar vehicle for mutualizing debt. The eurozone is not much closer to implementing either measure than it was a year ago.