Terminal trends for Australian election

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard convincingly won a leadership vote against rival Kevin Rudd on Monday and it is she who will head the Australian Labor Party and government at the election sometime in 2013, or maybe even this year.

Over the coming months there will be analysis after analysis of opinion polls, focus groups and voter demographics by professional pundits. But it seems to me that there is a relatively simple way of looking at the task confronting Gillard and the Coalition opposition leader in their bid to secure the support of the Australian public.

I travel a lot and I have seen many different economies and elections. I think I must have been to 56 countries over the last five years, countries as far apart economically, geographically and politically as Mexico and Mongolia, Malta and Mozambique. And as a self-pronounced "airport economist", it occurs to me that I can understand the electorate in my own country, by observing my home airport of Sydney.