A visit of great potential

Because this year will see a presidential election in the US and a new leadership will take over the helm in China, major breakthroughs in US-China relations are not likely during 2012. Nevertheless, the agenda for Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping's Feb 14-15 visit to Washington will be packed with discussion of important issues at a time when future developments regionally and globally are less predictable than usual.

This is a year of political change throughout Asia, with upcoming elections in the Hong Kong special administrative region, the Republic of Korea and Russia. An election could be held in Japan in 2012, too. In addition, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is experiencing a succession as Kim Jong-un assumes power after his father Kim Jong-il's sudden death in December. Never before have so many key countries in the region faced possible leadership changes during the same 12 months.

Inevitably, national leaders in all these countries are now especially focused on domestic developments and may become pricklier on international issues that have domestic resonance. Great uncertainties over what will happen in Europe and its potential knock-on effects on the global economy add to the questions about major outcomes during 2012.