The future of emerging economies

Will the 21st century really belong to China? Will emerging markets inherit the earth?

Uprising, the new book by George Magnus - senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank in London - goes behind the hype to show that the emerging markets' century may not be all that it seems.

The fate of emerging countries is still intertwined with the success or failure of the flawed economies of the developed world. The stable growth forecast for emerging nations is likely to be overtaken by extraordinary and unpredictable local and international events.

As well as dealing with the aftermath of the financial crisis, emerging markets must also attend to ageing populations, develop cultures of innovation, and figure out how to balance growth with a green economy.

Magnus takes in his sweep everything from commodity prices to climate change and, from comparative advantage to demographics provides a compelling analysis of what the future might look like - not just for emerging markets, but for investors, businesses and economies everywhere.

Without urgent political and economic reform in China, India and other emerging countries, Magnus argues, the US is likely to remain the prominent, even the dominant, global power for decades to come.

This analysis of why China and others may shape but won't ultimately shake the world is iconoclastic and essential reading.

(China Daily 01/31/2011 page17)