The politics of a non-political agreement

The signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with the Chinese mainland has led to two debates in Taiwan - whether or not the enhanced economic integration with the mainland will hurt Taiwan's interest, and whether or not it will facilitate subsequent political integration. Both debates are spurious to the extent that they mainly reflect the pro-independence propensity hidden in their upsurge. But none of these debates can shape either the direct answers to these questions or the influence of pro-independence stance in the future because the ECFA is bound to generate contradictory implications.

The first debate is a familiar one between competition and protection elsewhere too. The argument against the ECFA holds that a more open market will lead to the dumping of goods from the mainland, which are of lower quality but inexpensive. The ruling Kuomintang counters that only an open market can effectively enhance the competitive edge of the goods made in Taiwan in the long run and the mainland market provides the scale of economy for Taiwan producers to achieve just that.

But the real debate is not about protectionism.