DPJ's woes come with the proverbial silver lining

A funding scandal dogging the linchpin in Japan's main ruling party could thwart the party's efforts to regain the political momentum lost since its historic election victory last summer.

Prosecutors questioned Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) secretary-general Ichiro Ozawa on Saturday over an alleged false political fund report on a land purchase in Tokyo by his fundraising group in 2004. The move came after the Tokyo district public prosecutor's office arrested two former secretaries and a current aide to Ozawa earlier this month.

The scandal threatens to delay a crucial budget aimed at bolstering the country's economy and scupper the party's chance of winning a mid-year election, adding to the woes of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's four-month-old government.

Opposition parties have seized on the investigations to keep the DPJ government on the defensive during the spring Diet session that starts on Jan 18. The former ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) has threatened to boycott the parliamentary debate on an extra budget to prop up the economy if the DPJ dodges questions about the scandal ensnaring Ozawa.

The investigation has eroded voter support for Hatoyama's government, too, as surveys show. This comes before an upper house election, which the DPJ needs to win an outright majority to ensure smooth passage of laws, raising the risk of policy stalemate in the long run.

Support for Hatoyama's Cabinet, which had already slid because of voters' doubts over his leadership, fell from last month's 48 to 42 percent, according to an Asahi newspaper poll. It is a real come down from the above 70 percent after Hatoyama assumed office in September. The percentage of people planning to vote for the ruling party in the upper house election has fallen from 35 to 28, in a Yomiuri poll.

A majority of voters polled by media surveyors want Ozawa to step down from his key post. But the former LDP chief secretary-turned-DPJ bigwig has refused to do so, saying he hadn't done any wrong intentionally. Ozawa resigned from the LDP to form the Japan Renewal Party, which he ultimately renamed the Liberal Party in 1998 after changing the name a couple of times.

Hatoyama, who also has been the subject of a damaging investigation into his fundraising group, has backed Ozawa, saying he hoped the DPJ heavyweight would get a chance to prove his innocence soon. It seems Hatoyama has no option but to back Ozawa because of the latter's strong influence in the DPJ. Losing Ozawa would undermine Hatoyama's political base seriously.

One of the DPJ's most powerful figures, Ozawa has been credited by many to be the mastermind behind the party's dramatic rise to power last year. Many think his expertise is vital to winning this year's upper house poll, too. The DPJ would suffer a blow and lose the capacity to set policy direction if Ozawa were sidelined before the poll for the upper house.

But some analysts say the DPJ may be better off without Ozawa. Even some DPJ leaders wonder whether Ozawa's pugnacious approach to politics could prove as much a bane as a boon for the party.

Ozawa has presented the DPJ with a dilemma ever since his small Liberal Party merged with it in 2003, especially because the present ruling party relies on his skills, even though his image as an old-style political fixer is denting the popularity of the party. A protg of former LDP kingpin Kakuei Tanaka, considered by many to be the father of Japan's modern pork-barrel politics, Ozawa left the party in 1993. He was perhaps the most effective figure seeking to end LDP's long grip on national power. He took over as DPJ leader in 2006 but stepped down last May after a former aide was charged with accepting illegal corporate donations.

Analysts believe Ozawa's public defiance and criticism of the prosecutors' investigation into his funding may have prompted the wider probe. The scheduled start of the ordinary Diet session on Jan 18 was one factor behind the prosecutors' decision to take to a hard-line strategy, making the DPJ heavyweight's position perilous.

But Ozawa's woes have a potential silver lining for Hatoyama's stumbling government. With the DPJ's "shadow shogun" preoccupied, the Hatoyama government may find it easier to dispel the notion that it is under his thumb. If Ozawa steps down it could give the DPJ an opportunity to become a more sustainable political force in the long run.

The DPJ and its allies could ignore any opposition boycott, too, but that could further erode their support among voters.

The DPJ swept to power in the August election that ended more than half a century of nearly unbroken LDP rule by pledging to reduce bureaucratic grip on policy, cut waste and boost consumer spending to help rein in the country's ballooning public debt.

But the investigation against Ozawa has become a public relations disaster for the DPJ and is fuelling doubts about its ability to deliver on the promises of change. If things are left as they are, it could disappoint the public further, forcing it conclude that nothing has changed except the change of government, and politics remains as corrupt as ever.

The LDP's ability to take the offensive during the Diet session, however, is in doubt after it failed to do so in the extraordinary session last year. Recent reports show that while Hatoyama's Cabinet has been losing public support, the LDP, periodically racked by scandals during lengthy rule, hasn't seen its popularity rise, either.

The LDP needs a reality check if it thinks that just focusing on the DPJ funds scandal will help it return to power. Instead of taking the easy path by exploiting the DPJ's woes, the LDP should reflect seriously on its past policies and spell out to voters how it would run the country if given the chance again.

(China Daily 01/27/2010 page9)