Why take this wrong turn in green drive?
The new regulation on electric bikes in China will take the wheels off an affordable, convenient and green form of transportation, and the industry that has burgeoned around it. It will prove detrimental to the environment, traffic flows and riders, especially low-income commuters. And it will deal a devastating blow to the country's swelling e-bike manufacturing sector.
The new rules adopted by the State Standardization Authority, which take effect on Jan 1, reclassify e-bikes weighing more than 40 kg and with maximum speeds exceeding 20 km/h as "motorbikes". This categorization will require owners of such bicycles to complete driver training, and pay to get licenses, license plates and insurance. Analysts estimate it could cost riders up to 600 yuan. That is a large sum for most in the electric bike-riding demographic and too much for many of its ranks, such as migrant workers.
The restrictions would apply to about 90 percent of the roughly 100 million e-bikes already on the country's roads, industry analysts say. In addition, manufacturers would need to invest about 200 million yuan, including at least 80 million yuan in equipment and 100 million yuan in fixed assets. And China's Bicycle Association says less than 1 percent, or about 10, of China's 2,394 e-bike makers can satisfy these stipulations.
Most are already announcing plans to lay off workers or down their shutters. Industry analysts expect more than 80 percent of the manufacturers to go out of business and about 5 million factory workers to lose their jobs. This would certainly create a ripple effect throughout the entire commodity chain.
Manufacturers say the new rule is the result of political pressure from gas-engine motorbike companies, who have continued losing market share to e-bikes in recent years.
Safety is a pertinent issue, as the number of road fatalities involving e-bikes has risen. If safety is the ultimate concern, other measures, such as helmet laws, would be much more practical and effective. And if driver training and licensing requirements are used as avenues to contribute to safety, the procedures should be streamlined and made more affordable.
The new rule also seems unlikely to stimulate the auto market, because most members of the e-bike riding demographic cannot afford a car. It is also worth noting that many of the regulation's supporters are of the car-owning, or at least the taxi-taking, varieties.
And as Beijing's 4-millionth car hits the capital's roads, it is becoming increasingly apparent that its transportation infrastructure cannot accommodate such a massive and rapid swell of automobiles. The stopped-up traffic grids in other cities bear the same testimony.
E-bikes offer a convenient alternative to packed buses or subways for those who can't afford to join the thickening clots of private cars clogging traffic arteries. And charging a bike for a day's use costs about 1 yuan, roughly the same as most cities' public transport fares, China's Bicycle Association says.
Many metropolises have banned electric bicycles but had to lift them later to effectively unplug traffic routes, as Beijing did in 2006.
These bikes also ease the environmental stress created by the multitude of gas-powered vehicles belching toxic fumes. The environmental impact of the electricity consumed to charge the bike for a day is negligible compared to that of the emissions spewed by gas-powered vehicles. Surely, the new rules are incongruent with China's commitment to the UN climate conference in Copenhagen.
And since the central government named e-bike development as a technology priority in 1991, green-tech experts have looked toward China's industry as the global laboratory for developing electric cars. But they will do so no more.
If the government really hopes to steer the country down the road of helping lower-income citizens, unclogging traffic grids and lowering emissions, putting the brakes on e-bike use marks a wrong turn.
E-mail: erik_nilsson@chinadaily.com.cn
(China Daily 12/24/2009 page9)
