China's promise truly ambitious

At the Copenhagen climate summit, there are some misunderstandings and differences of opinion on China's commitment to cut the intensity of its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 percent by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. Detractors argue that China's efforts in emission cuts are not ambitious enough, and even believe that China's target does not transcend the BAU (Business As Usual) scenario.

First, we should have a comprehensive understanding of the BAU scenario in international talks on climate change. Generally, the BAU scenario means adhering to an established economic and social development path without any policy adjustment. Specifically, the BAU scenario in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions refers to the amount of GHGs discharged in order to maintain the current economic and social development momentum.

With regard to China's BAU scenario, firstly, China's energy consumption and GHG emissions will continue to increase for a long period given that China is still at the middle stage of industrialization and in the process of accelerated urbanization. This kind of growth path, which is in line with development norms, should certainly be reflected in the BAU scenario. Secondly, the formulation of a BAU scenario is closely related to the choice of the starting point. If we take China's "10th Five-Year Plan (2001-05)", characterized by fast industrialization and urbanization as the starting point, then the policy targets proclaimed and the achievements in the "11th Five-Year Plan (2006-10)" should not be included in China's BAU scenario.