|
Yemen war on rebels heightens instability
(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-08-26 07:42
SANA'A: Yemen's latest assault on Shi'ite rebels in the north seems unlikely to end a conflict that has flickered for five years and inflicted thousands of casualties. It may only deepen instability in a poor country also struggling with southern separatists, Al-Qaida militants and a disastrous mismatch between fast-depleting oil and water resources and explosive population growth, analysts say. The well-armed rebels, operating in rugged mountainous terrain, are led by Abdul-Malek al-Houthi, whose group embodies a revivalist strand of the Zaydi branch of Shi'ite Islam. "The government has attempted to link the three crises - the southern secessionists, the Houthis and Al-Qaida - as one: almost a domestic axis of evil," said Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen scholar at Princeton University on a visit to Sana'a. He said he had seen little evidence of any connections, other than rhetorical points by Al-Qaida propagandists. The northern province of Saada near the Saudi border is off-limits to all but relief agencies, but the two million people of Sana'a get daily reminders of the war as MiG fighters roar off on bombing sorties and trucks packed with conscripts head north. Tough to assess The media blackout makes it impossible to assess the scale of death, destruction and displacement, although hundreds of people have been reported killed or wounded on both sides since clashes intensified into full-scale battles late last month.
UN agencies said last week that more than 100,000 people had fled their homes and a humanitarian crisis loomed. Past attempts to mediate in the conflict, notably by the Gulf state of Qatar, have failed to bring lasting peace. The US embassy on Sunday urged both parties to return to last year's ceasefire pact - a clear signal that one of Yemen's main external allies sees no prospect of decisive military success for President Ali Abdullah Saleh's government forces. Yemeni Foreign Minister Abubakir al-Qirbi said last week that the Houthi insurgents had taken Saleh's unilateral declaration in July 2008 that the war was over as a "sign of government weakness" and had provoked the latest fighting. "The government doesn't need another Houthi conflict right now," said a senior Western diplomat. They are really strapped for cash and there are pressures on the security forces around the country." Intractable conflict The government began a short-lived effort to launch reconstruction after last year's ceasefire and had mostly avoided stirring trouble with the Saada-based rebels, he said. However, after months of renewed clashes, Saleh now appears to have ignored international advice about the difficulty of crushing tribal guerrillas with air power, tanks and artillery. Instead Yemen's president has staked out an uncompromising position, setting tough ceasefire terms and promising decisive action to end "this sedition", which he described as cancer. Reuters (China Daily 08/26/2009 page11) |
