It's all about belief in Jakarta's positive economic future
For US businessman Jim Castle, July 17 was like the rerun of a horror story. Six years ago, Jim and his wife were having lunch in JW Marriott Hotel in Jakarta when a car bomb exploded just outside the hotel entrance, throwing the Castles to the floor and killing a Dutch businessman seated just 15 m away. The couple were saved only because their table was shielded from the line of the blast.
After such an experience, many people would simply have pulled up stakes and headed for safer pastures. Many did. Castle did not. Why? It was most likely a combination of steadiness of character, more than 25 years of hard-earned expertise in navigating the uncertainties and complexities (and even personal dangers) of doing business in Indonesia, and a firm belief that Indonesia had turned the corner following the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998. So the Castles stayed on.
Thus, the morning of July 17 found Castle in the same Marriott restaurant, hosting a regular breakfast meeting for international businessmen, organized by his CastleAsia consulting firm, when a suicide bomber masquerading as a hotel guest set off a powerful bomb in the lobby just outside the restaurant.
Four of the forum participants were killed and four seriously injured. Castle was spared again simply because of the fortuitous location of his seat. But this time he was injured and temporarily deafened, and ended up in a hospital overnight with other victims of the near-simultaneous bombings at the Marriott and the Ritz-Carlton Hotel next door.
Exactly what Castle will do now is uncertain, but his immediate reaction, typically, has been more of concern for his lost and injured colleagues than with his own close call. And it seems likely that he will refuse to give the terrorists the satisfaction of driving him (and possibly other firms among his clients) out of this promising and ultimately endearing country.
"People ask me: 'What does this mean for Indonesia?'" Castle writes from Jakarta. "My response is that although Americans were personally hurt by 9/11, neither the US nor its great prospects were diminished. The same is true for Indonesia."
A 1970s alumnus of the East-West Center, Castle's career exemplifies the Center's mission to bring people and nations in the Asia Pacific region closer. It illustrates the personal dangers this could involve, too.
Beyond its immediate human dimensions, the July Jakarta bombings raise a number of broader questions. Why did it happen now, after several years of relative calm in terrorist activities in Indonesia? And what is the meaning of this dramatic return of violence targeted against foreigners?
Although there have been sporadic warnings of renewed terrorist attacks in the intervening years, some recent, the general view has been that the Indonesian government's crackdown and continued vigilance - working with others including the Australian and US governments - has been remarkably successful.
The main threat, the locally spawned but Al-Qaida-connected Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), has been controlled. Much of its leaders have been either arrested or killed, and its remaining followers are scattered in small cells around the countryside, with limited capability to mount significant attacks.
Some observers say there is a split within the JI remnants, between a minority advocating continued high-profile actions and a majority arguing that such events only alienate the population and that the better course is slow, patient, low-level proselytizing. Key among the group advocating dramatic attacks is Noordin Top, the Malaysia-born planner of earlier terrorist actions and recruiter of suicide bombers. Investigators say the Marriott and Ritz-Carlton bombings bear a number of his signatory features.
The most serious explanation for the attacks could be that Top's pro-bombing faction has emerged victorious in JI's internal struggle. But there is little hard evidence of this. It seems more likely that the extreme faction, anxious to advertise its survival and perhaps desperate as the authorities close in on Top and his henchmen, launched this attack in the hope of attracting new followers and demonstrating the continuing vulnerability of the government and foreigners in Indonesia.
Given the trends over the past several years, it must be considered doubtful that July 17 marks a real resurgence of JI or the broader terrorist threat in Indonesia.
Nevertheless, it will never be possible to prevent such incidents or even the occasional catastrophic attack. Realistically, this is the future that faces people like Castle, believers in a positive economic future for Indonesia and the broader regional community of which it is an important part.
The author is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the East-West Center of the US
(China Daily 07/28/2009 page9)
