India's grand old party rides on stability, hope

The outcome of India's general election means a rise in expectations, both at home and abroad, from the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

India's electorate threw up a surprise by giving the Congress party a far clearer mandate than was expected even by its most optimistic sympathizer. The media and political analysts had predicted another hung parliament, but voters demonstrated their maturity and the power of the ballot box to prove them wrong. They demolished the myth of the "anti-incumbency" theory, seen as India's contribution to psephology across the world.

This is the best result for the Congress (the country's oldest party) since 1991, the last time that India saw a single party government. But even then, the Congress ran a minority government, supported by a large number of disparate parties. And the government was embroiled in a series of corruption scandals, some of them directly related to its efforts to garner support in parliament to stay in power.

Unlike most of the general elections in the past two decades, the outcome this time made it easier for the President of India (who is only a nominal head) to invite a party (or coalition) to form the new government.

Since the UPA won 262 seats, there were no parleys with constitutional experts, no need for legal interpretations and no speculation. Without delay, President Pratibha Patil invited Manmohan Singh, the declared prime ministerial candidate of Congress, to form the government.

Though the margin of victory gives Singh a freer hand in choosing his team of effective and honest colleagues, it is bound to put tremendous pressure on his governance and policy formulations. Apart from meeting rising expectations at home, India also has to pass the scrutiny of the world that has come to see it as the cusp of change.

Singh could become the first prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to have two full elected terms in office. But he would like to go down in history as one who ensured a smooth succession to the younger generation of leaders.

The man many in the Congress, and the media, want to project as the prime-minister-in-waiting is Rahul Gandhi, son of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and present Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

In all probability, Rahul Gandhi will be the Congress' prime ministerial candidate in the next general election, scheduled for 2014, though he has repeatedly denied eyeing India's highest political post. Instead, he has said he remains focused on the long-term task of rebuilding the Congress and bring the power and dynamism of youth into politics.

But as the swearing in of the new government draws nearer, Rahul Gandhi's reluctance to join the Council of Ministers has only intensified the clamor within the Congress to project him as the next prime minister.

The Congress has increased its tally from 145 in 2004 to 206 in a 543 member parliament in this election, and many Congress leaders and workers have been quick to attribute the success to Rahul Gandhi. He has been credited with turning around the fortunes of the party in the large and election-wise complex province of Uttar Pradesh (from where he contested the polls). Rahul Gandhi had already been singled out for his efforts in the revival of Congress' youth wings, the National Students Union of India and the Youth Congress, and the exponential increase in their cadre base.

Besides, many people feel that once Rahul Gandhi joins the government, it could open the doors for a sizeable group of younger members of parliament. But since Rahul Gandhi (and the other younger leaders) does not have the experience of running any form of government, it would be better for him to wait for at least another five years before seeking a mandate to be India's prime minister.

The politics of succession aside, economic challenges remain on top of the government agenda. India Inc. seems elated (as reflected in the sharp rise in stocks) to see Singh continuing at the helm. It expects him to reform the insurance, pension, banking and retail sectors, to boost the slowing down economy. India Inc. has come to appreciate the advantages of UPA's policies of restraint on foreign investments and tight regulations, too, after seeing the global financial crisis blow off the sails of even the most advanced economies.

The Congress is aware that a majority of Indians work in the informal, unorganized sector, and hence is likely to reform labor laws, especially those concerning contract laborers, even though it may take some time.

Spending on education, health and employment will remain the government's priority. So would the costly employment guarantee and national insurance schemes - aimed at reviving rural and agricultural sectors in response to about 100,000 farmers' committing suicide in the past two decades - despite India's growing fiscal deficit.

In the immediate future, most business newspapers see a stronger stock market, a surge in foreign investments, and rebound in growth and reforms. As Nandan Nilekani, co-chairman of India's largest IT company Infosys, said on Sunday, the election outcome is a "wise signal from voters" and the Congress would have to try and "find the golden mean between economic growth and redistribution."

The author is a professor in Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

(China Daily 05/21/2009 page9)