Type of help Pakistan can do with
At the conclusion of his recent meeting with the presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan, President Barack Obama made an important speech that identified the common goal of the three countries to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al-Qaida and its extremist allies. "Our strategy reflects a fundamental truth," he said. "The security of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the United States are linked."
A part of the speech that has received special attention in Afghanistan and Pakistan was when the president stated that "the United States has made a lasting commitment to defeat Al-Qaeda, but also to support the democratically elected sovereign governments of both Pakistan and Afghanistan. That commitment will not waver. And that support will be sustained."
It is important that President Obama has made this commitment clear, because many in the two Southwest Asian countries still feel that they were forgotten by the US after the Cold War ended, in spite of their important role in the Soviet Union's defeat in Afghanistan. The Afghans also remember the US shift of focus to Iraq immediately after the Taliban government was ousted following the September 11 attacks. The Pakistanis, in turn, remember the layers of US sanctions put on them due to the nuclear program, until they became a frontline state in the war against Al-Qaida.
China and Pakistan have been reliable friends for over 40 years, irrespective of the changes in the leadership in either country. To highlight this relationship, China was the first country visited by Pakistan's President Zardari after he assumed office last October. During his visit, with China's President Hu Jintao, the two countries signed several agreements, including on economic cooperation, trade, communication satellites, mining, and the environment. Trade between the two countries exceeds $7 billion a year, and is expected to double by 2011.
Insurgencies can seldom be ended by military means alone. The recruitment of insurgents is greatly facilitated by high unemployment, linked largely to high rates of illiteracy. In Pakistan, for example, only about 55 percent of the population can read and write.
The current population of Pakistan is about 170 million, and it is growing at about 5 million each year. Pakistan needs to create about 2 million new jobs a year. Making a conservative assumption that creating each new job requires about $5,000, Pakistan would need $10 billion per year for more than a decade to bring its unemployment levels down significantly.
Some of the job creation can be financed internally, but since private foreign investment in the country has essentially ceased due to the deteriorating security situation, most of the funds would have to come from international development agencies. The total international direct assistance that Pakistan received during 2007 was about $1.6 billion. This would need to increase substantially, if the goal of creating millions of new jobs is to be achieved.
The Kerry-Lugar Bill now before the US Senate would authorize $1.5 billion annually in US economic development assistance to Pakistan over 10 years. The corresponding legislation in the House of Representatives is known as the "Pakistan Enduring Assistance and Cooperation Enhancement Act of 2009," with the appropriate acronym "PEACE." The passage of such a bill would be an important indication of a long-term commitment to the development of Pakistan.
Congress is concerned, however, that the $10 billion assistance provided by the US to Pakistan during the past five years has not shown any results. It needs to be recognized, though, that an estimated 80 percent of that assistance was for military purposes (fighting the extremists along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border). The amount under the new bill is mostly for economic and development assistance - for agriculture and food security, strengthening national and provincial governance, expanding the rule of law, and improving education. Some of the funds for the fiscal year beginning on Oct1, 2009, will also be used to help people displaced as a result of military operations against the Taliban in Swat and neighboring areas.
In addition to the US and China, several other countries have also pledged substantial development assistance. At the 2009 Pakistan Donors Conference hosted by Japan and the World Bank in April, international donors pledged more than $5 billion to bolster Pakistan's economy and help it fight extremism. Japan and the US each pledged $1 billion, and several other pledges were made, including $700 million from Saudi Arabia, $330 million from Iran, $300 million from the United Arab Emirates, and $100 million from Turkey.
Checks need to be built in to ensure that the funds are used in Pakistan for the designated purposes, but without adding so many unrealistic requirements that there is public pressure against cooperation. After all, as President Obama has emphasized, it is in the common interests of the US and Pakistan, to fight extremism; and, the lack of education, employment opportunities, and infrastructure that provide fertile ground to those who recruit militants. An educated population and adequate employment opportunities are the best long-term defenses against the threat of extremism.
China played a crucial role in the construction of the Karakoram Highway link to northern Pakistan, and has considerable construction experience in this rugged mountain terrain. The US has shown great interest in linking South and Central Asia through Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, this can only be achieved when the security situation improves. When that happens, the expertise of the US and China can be put to good use in developing the energy and transportation infrastructure of the two South Asian countries.
In the meantime, the cooperation between China and the US on other infrastructure projects in Pakistan can provide a valuable opportunity for the two major countries to gain experience in working with each other in the difficult conditions of Southwest and Central Asia.
The author is an adjunct senior Fellow at the East-West Center, and president of Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century.
(China Daily 05/19/2009 page9)
