Recession deniers always recycle the same lame excuses

Every recession has its own set of drivers, its own unique circumstances, all put in motion by the central bank's eternal quest to find the appropriate overnight interest rate to deliver economic Nirvana.

The 2001 recession witnessed the bursting of the dotcom bubble and pullback in business investment. This time it was the implosion in housing that infected banks, impairing their capital and prompting them to constrict the supply of credit to businesses and consumers. What's constant from one cycle to the next, however, is the elaborate web of excuses folks weave to deny reality and convince themselves that this time is different,

Now that Robert Hall, the chairman of the group entrusted with dating the business cycle's peaks and troughs, has said he sees "conclusive" evidence of a recession, it's a good time to look back and see where the herd went wrong.