Report predicts grim future for global oil supplies
Global oil supplies will drop more than half by 2030 after peaking last year, an independent scientific group said in an energy report published on Monday.
"World oil production has peaked in 2006," the German-based Energy Watch Group (EWG) said in a study unveiled in London.
"Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower.
"This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame," the EWG added in its study.
The findings come as world oil prices are striking record highs owing to tight supplies and simmering tensions in the crude-rich Middle East.
New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, touched an historic $90.07 a barrel on Friday.
EWG analyst Jorg Schindler said that "the most alarming finding" of the group's report was the expected steep decline in oil supplies.
According to data supplied by the body, world oil production reached a peak of 81 million barrels per day in 2006. The figure could slide to 58 million bpd by 2020 and to 39 million in 2030.
The group conceded that such expectations, together with the timing of last year's peak output, was in sharp contrast to much higher-output projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"The International Energy Agency, anyway until recently, denies that such a fundamental change of our energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future," the Energy Watch Group said.
"The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a false signal to politicians, industry and consumers - not to forget the media," it added.
Meanwhile in a separate report published on Monday, the independent Centre for Global Energy Studies noted that while world oil production has barely increased over the past two years, demand has risen by more than one million bpd during the same period.
World crude output was up by just 0.2 million bpd during the first nine months of 2007, compared with the second half of 2005, London-based CGES said in its latest monthly oil report.
Over the same period, global oil demand increased by 1.3 million bpd, it added.
"Without more oil from OPEC, prices will continue to rise over the winter."
But on Monday, OPEC member Kuwait forecast lower prices next month as a result of higher production from the cartel.
"We think that the demand-supply will be affected positively by the 500,000 barrels increase," said Kuwait's interim Oil Minister Mohammad al-Olaim.
"Everybody knows... high prices are not related to supply and demand issue," he said. "They are related to other things like geopolitics, refinery production in the US and others reasons."
AFP
(China Daily 10/24/2007 page16)
