Indian outsourcing is not a lost cause, at least it's not yet

A recent report looked at the finances of Indian computer-software companies through an unusual lens, examining what these superbly successful businesses might look like minus a favorable exchange rate.

The results of First Global Securities Ltd's study are quite shocking.

If it weren't for the 36 percent depreciation in the Indian currency in the past 11 years, the latest full-year profits of the top five Indian software-services exporters would be lower by anywhere from 40 percent to two-thirds, the report shows.

The high net-profit margins of Indian software companies, which range from 19 percent to 27 percent, are only possible because of a "currency subsidy", First Global says.

"Stripped of that, the business looks like a dog", the firm said in its note.

Conjuring up scenarios of what might have been is always problematic.

Economic conditions under which the rupee might have remained at 33 to the US dollar would have been very different from the ones that prevailed in the year ended March 31, when, admittedly with some help from the central bank, the Indian currency averaged about 45.

Who is to know if in those changed circumstances, the homegrown software companies wouldn't have pursued a different growth strategy?

Even so, First Global's study does raise a pointed question about the viability of the business model, especially now when, following a 6.8 percent surge in the local currency in the last quarter, expectations of a sustained rise in the rupee are gaining ground.

Most Indian software exporters are looking at an increasingly disadvantageous exchange rate as their biggest, long-term challenge.

They have won a temporary reprieve thanks to the subprime-related seizures in the credit market and the attendant loss of appetite for emerging-market currencies.

The exchange rate, at the end of last week, was 40.88 rupees to the dollar.

For now, the Indian economy seems to be surprisingly resilient to both a stronger currency and higher interest rates.

Gross domestic product expanded 9.3 percent in the quarter ended June 30, accelerating from 9.1 percent in the previous three months, government statistics released last week showed.

An appreciating currency is a bigger challenge for Indian software vendors than the prospect of a marked slowdown in the US economy.

A US recession, were one to occur, would be a problem in the short run and may even spawn new outsourcing opportunities as more American companies try to prune costs.

A long-term erosion of the cost advantage that lies at the very heart of outsourcing is a different matter altogether.

At present, almost four-fifths of India's annual $40 billion revenue from software and back-office transaction processing comes from exports, with the US accounting for at least half the sales of the top companies.

The home market, too, is offering more opportunities.

As economic growth creates capacity shortages across the Indian economy, the underdeveloped local market for technology sales is beginning to stir.

Mumbai-based Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, the industry leader, last week bagged a $140 million contract from state-controlled telecommunications company Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd.

Even as outsourcing companies seek to cut their reliance on the US, they must seek to boost profitability of North American sales.

Infosys Technologies Ltd, the No 2 Indian exporter of software services, recently said that it is raising prices for new customers and will seek to negotiate a 2 percent increase in existing contracts.

Outsourcing may not be a dog yet.

And if the leaders of India's software companies react to the rising rupee in time, using the billions of dollars they accumulated to acquire brand names and technical competence, they might still be spared that dire fate.

Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

(China Daily 09/04/2007 page16)