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No new stimulus needed as economy remains stable

By Wei Tian | China Daily | Updated: 2013-04-23 09:15

The actual investment reached 1.7 trillion yuan when reconstruction was completed in early 2012, according to Sichuan provincial government.

However, Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science under the Ministry of Finance, said on Monday that although the Chinese economy faces the challenge of two unexpected natural events - H7N9 avian flu and the earthquake - any economic stimulus similar to that of 2008 was unlikely.

"More stimulus is the last thing we need at the moment," he said, explaining that the economy is now on an overall stable trend, and macroeconomic policies would not be affected by Ya'an's 7.0-magnitude quake.

He added that any relief work needed in the aftermath would be carried out gradually, over the next two to three years, thus the cost of that would not put any pressure on the country's overall fiscal position.

Total fiscal revenue from all China's local governments was 6.1 trillion yuan in 2008. By 2012, that figure had almost doubled to 11.7 trillion yuan.

Yang Weixiao, an analyst with Lianxun Securities, said he expected the relief work would mean an extra 2 percent industrial added value to the Sichuan economy, which can be translated into nearly 0.1 percent on a national level. The cost of the rebuilding was likely to add an average 0.5 percent to the Consumer Price Index for the next three quarters, Yang added.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said during the recent annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund that the country's 7.7 percent growth recorded in the first quarter of this year was a "reasonable level", and that the government's prudent policy stance should mean steady growth and stable price levels.

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