US farmers 'cautiously optimistic' on China trade

Soybean sales seesaw

Before the first trade war, China's appetite for US soybeans had grown steadily, driven by a rising middle-income group that was eating more pork, more poultry and more edible oils — all of which depended on soybeans as a feedstock.

The numbers were impressive. In the seven years leading up to the 2018 trade war, 28 percent of all US soybean production on average went to China, according to the American Soybean Association.

By 2016 and 2017, US soybean exports to China were running at $10.5 billion and $12.2 billion, respectively, accounting for 62 percent and 57 percent of all US soybean exports, according to data from the US International Trade Commission.

Broader agricultural trade was also substantial.

From 2012 to 2017, China purchased US farm products worth $24 billion to $29 billion annually, about 20 percent of all US agricultural exports, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The trade relationship had grown intertwined — China needed US grain to feed its livestock, US farmers needed Chinese demand to justify the acreage they were planting.

The symbiotic relation was abruptly interrupted when the first Trump administration imposed tariffs on billions of Chinese goods in April 2018. Beijing imposed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on US soybeans.

The effect was immediate and severe. US farm exports to China dropped to $13 billion in 2018 from $24 billion in 2017, a reduction of almost 46 percent.

US soybeans, the No 1 farm export to China, fell much more — from $12.2 billion in 2017 to $3.1 billion in 2018 — a 75 percent collapse in a single year.

China was pushed to look elsewhere for its soybean supply, leading to a structural shift in the country's agricultural imports strategy.

In 2012, a severe US drought had forced Chinese buyers to turn to Brazil to fill their supply needs, and the South American country demonstrated that it could reliably deliver supplies. Since 2013, Brazil's soybean exports to China have grown steadily.

Conversely, China's demand for soybeans has helped Brazil to grow its soybean capacity. Brazil overtook the US to become the world's largest soybean producer in 2017.

When US soybean exports to China dropped to 8 million metric tons in 2018, Brazil sold 69 MMT of soybeans to China, speeding up Brazil's share of soybean exports to China.

By 2024, Brazil expanded China shipments to 73 MMT, accounting for 70 percent of China's soybean imports, while US exports represented just 21 percent.

Brazil now produces nearly 40 percent of the global soybean harvest while the US produces about 28 percent, according to analysis by the American Soybean Association.

As trade began to recover under the Phase One agreement, US soybean exports to China grew and peaked at 34 MMT in 2020, about 55 percent of what Brazil shipped to China.

The US' tariff escalation last year was even more brutal. When Trump imposed a 34 percent tariff on Chinese goods in April 2025, the retaliatory tariffs from China sunk US soybean exports deeper to a mere 7 MMT.

"When that was announced, soybean prices basically collapsed," Mike Cerny, a farmer in Sharon, Wisconsin, told PBS in April last year. "If you could afford to hold on to your beans and wait for better times, you were OK. If you had a mortgage due, or payments due, or cash flow needs, and you had to sell at that point, you were taking it pretty rough."

The financial loss for soybean growers was significant. Even with federal assistance, farmers still lost almost $75 per acre of soybeans in 2025, according to the American Soybean Association.

Similarly, US beef exports to China fell from a peak of $2.76 billion in 2022 to $977 million in 2025. Overall, US farm exports to China, which peaked at $41 billion in 2022, dropped to a mere $10 billion in 2025, the lowest since 2008.

Overall US farm exports were down by 3 percent in 2025, primarily driven by losses in soybean exports, according to the US Department of Agriculture.