Nation saw great steps in weather prediction

A mathematical breakthrough by a Chinese meteorologist six decades ago that dramatically improved the accuracy of weather forecasts has seen him honored with the country's top scientific award.

Chinese meteorology has advanced greatly over the past century, with the country now matching many developed countries in its use of high-end technologies to monitor atmospheric conditions and make accurate forecasts. But those achievements would not have been possible without basic theoretical research led by meteorologist Zeng Qingcun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

His scientific breakthroughs are still widely used today in weather forecasting and the study of global climate change, meteorological hazards and disaster risk reduction. It was because of these contributions that he received the State Preeminent Science and Technology Award, the highest scientific award in China.

Zeng, 85, was born in 1935 in Yangjiang, Guangdong province. Growing up in a peasant family in the countryside, he was involved in farm work when he was young and knew how changes in the weather could affect harvests.

In 1952, Zeng enrolled in Peking University to study physics and was assigned to the field of atmospheric physics. In 1954, an overnight frost froze about 40 percent of the wheat in Henan province, dealing a severe blow to food production.

"If we could predict the weather in advance and take precautions, we would reduce great losses," Zeng said, adding that the event reinforced his understanding of the significance of weather prediction.

Weather forecasts in China in the 1950s were highly dependent on observations and personal experience.

"In the past, people drew a weather map and used their previous experiences to predict the weather, which is obviously too subjective," Zeng said. "You need to use science. You have to understand why the weather changes this way and what rules the changes follow. According to the rules, you can write them into equations and solve them mathematically, this is called numerical weather forecasting."

Numerical weather prediction was pioneered in the 1920s by a British scientist. However, such models require vast data sets and very complex calculations and it was not until the 1950s, with the advent of computers, that the United States embarked on numerical weather prediction.