Asia-Pacific
US retains dominance but with diminished influence: expert
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-12-09 21:22
LONDON: The US influence has diminished despite remaining central to global economic and geopolitical power, says an international relations expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
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"It was inevitable that at some point we would see a rebalancing of global power, and I think to some extent 2009 has been a tipping point in terms of how this process is played out," Inkster told Xinhua in a recent interview.
As other major actors in the world arena become more influential, the United States will no longer have the stage all to itself as it did for a very long period after the World War II.
However, he said it was still too early to "write the obituary for the US and you should never underestimate the regenerative capacity of a country" like it.
"It is still a country which is incredibly dynamic and which gives individuals full play to their talents and abilities in a way which is still not true of any other country," he added.
When asked whether the G20 will replace the G8, Inkster said the G20 had already to some extent replaced the G8, noting that it was evident for some time that the G8 was increasingly less representative of the realities of global economic power.
"The G20 is an entity which is infinitely more representative of global economic interests than the G8 was. Membership of the G20 represents about 80 percent of all economic activity which I think is indicative of its influence," he said.
The G20 in 2009 has played an effective role in terms of responding to the world's major financial crisis, he added.
"Most of the major economic issues discussed at the G20 cannot be entirely divorced from politics. I think over time the G20 could evolve into something even more important than it has shown itself to be," he said.
"I know that some analysts and scholars are starting to speculate that, over time, the G20 could actually come to exercise more influence on the direction of global politics," he said.
On the real impact of the Lisbon Treaty on the European Union (EU), Inkster said it would create a permanent presidency of the European Council.
"More interesting in a way is the post of the European foreign minister," he said.
"Already, the EU has a number of diplomatic representatives in a number of capitals around the world, but from now on these are going to be more institutionalized. I think that the foreign role is probably going to be a powerful and influential one," he explained.
But he said it remained to be seen whether these new institutions would be allowed to grow in the way that they could grow, adding that larger and more powerful nations within the EU could seek to restrain their growth to protect their own interests.
Inkster said it remained to be seen whether the EU would become more united after the Lisbon Treaty entered into force on December 1.
"I doubt that the Lisbon Treaty will go entirely smoothly. There is a tension between the interests of the more powerful individual European countries to preserve their independence and autonomy of action and the inevitable desire of the new president and foreign representative to consolidate greater power under their own institutions," he said.
Based in London, the IISS is the world's leading think tank on political-military conflict. It was founded in 1958 by a number of individuals interested in how to maintain civilized international relations in the nuclear age.
