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Israeli divisions will make peacemaking harder
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-11 10:55 What Obama can do, Western officials and analysts say, is work to prevent further Israeli-Palestinian violence, maintain Israeli cooperation with Abbas's government and encourage the Palestinians to settle their differences while looking for opportunities to push forward with the peace process. It won't be easy. While Livni has vowed to restart the political track following Israel's 22-day offensive in Gaza, there are doubts about her ability to hold serious discussions on territorial concessions, which Abbas needs to survive. If she joins forces with rightists, simply talking about ceding holy land could cut short her government's life. If Netanyahu forms a government, it could be even harder. During the campaign, Netanyahu ruled out freezing Jewish settlement growth in the occupied West Bank, a long-standing Western demand that Obama is expected to push Israel to act on. Netanyahu has also vowed never to cede Arab East Jerusalem to the Palestinians or the Golan Heights to Syria, undermining the foundations of a two-state solution and a regional Arab peace initiative that Obama appears to have embraced. Analysts say Obama's ability to move either Livni or Netanyahu will depend in large part on their coalitions. Livni could turn to both Netanyahu and left-leaning Labour, led by Defence Minister Ehud Barak, to form a unity government. Netanyahu has more options if he gets the nod. On the right is Avigdor Lieberman, whose surging Yisrael Beiteinu party has pledged to get tougher with Palestinians, including Israeli Arab citizens, and to keep Jewish settlements. Such a partnership might look like the worst-case scenario for Obama, analysts said, although previous right-wing coalitions have led to breakthroughs, most notably in making peace with Egypt in 1979. There are signs, however, that Netanyahu may prefer to forge a broader coalition that includes Kadima, providing continuity that could help relations with Obama's foreign policy team, led by Hillary Clinton, the new US secretary of state. Still, what can be achieved given the political divisions on both sides looks minimal. While the United States could try to mend the West Bank-Gaza split by supporting creation of a Palestinian unity government, followed by new elections, "how does the US plan to make sure Abbas wins?" asked a senior Western diplomat. The diplomat lamented that the only real solution may be off-limits now. "You cannot change intra-Palestinian politics without a serious peace process that reinforces moderates. If you cannot satisfy the national aspiration of Palestinians soon, I think Hamas will be reinforced," the diplomat said.
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