Israeli divisions will make peacemaking harder

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(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-11 10:55

JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON -- No matter who leads Israel's next government, internal divisions are likely to tie its hands in any peacemaking with the Palestinians and leave US President Barack Obama's Middle East policy in limbo.

Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (R) stands with supporters at party headquarters in Tel Aviv February 11, 2009. [Agencies]

Centrist Tzipi Livni, who as foreign minister spearheaded peace talks with the Palestinians, led in Tuesday's election, but her Kadima party's razor-thin margin over rightist Benjamin Netanyahu left it too close to call who would be prime minister.

Western diplomats and analysts said the growing strength of right-wing parties in Israel made it almost impossible for the new government to make the compromises needed for peace, despite Obama's commitment to bringing the two sides together after Israel's war in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip last month.

The obstacles facing the peace process on the Palestinian side are just as daunting, and possibly harder to handle, since the Hamas Islamists won a 2006 parliamentary election and seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 after routing forces loyal to Western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas.

Like those Israeli leaders who want a two-state solution, Abbas, whose secular Fatah faction now runs only the Israeli-occupied West Bank, has seen his public support eroding.

His fight with Hamas for legitimacy among Palestinians, his failure to deliver a promised statehood deal in talks with outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and his response to the Gaza war have all sapped his strength.

"In a way, the Obama administration is going to inherit the worst of both worlds," said Aaron David Miller, a former US peace mediator and the author of "The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace".

"They have already inherited a dysfunctional Palestinian house, made worse by Gaza, and now what they are inheriting is a dysfunctional Israeli house where the prime minister is not going to be able to make the kinds of bold, tough choices required to move forward," he added.

PALESTINIANS PESSIMISTIC

Top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat underscored the sense of hopelessness. Even if Livni, his negotiating partner, comes out on top, Erekat said, "the next Israeli government will be unable to deliver the requirements of peace" -- a crackdown on Jewish settlement building and the easing of Israeli restrictions that have stunted the Palestinian economy.

The electoral arithmetic speaks for itself. Partial results showed Livni's centrist Kadima and left-wing parties would hold only 56 seats in the 120-seat parliament, while a right-wing bloc would control 64, enough to govern.

That means emboldened far-right parties like Yisrael Beiteinu will have the power to bring down fragile coalitions.

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