OPINION> EDITORIALS
Second thoughts
(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-07-24 07:47

Shanghai's announcement on Wednesday to encourage couples, who themselves are without siblings, to have a second child has aroused much public interest across the country.

In fact, Shanghai is not the first city to do this. Other cities, such as Guangzhou and Beijing, have sent out similar messages in the last few years.

The main argument in support of Shanghai's move is that this is necessary to tackle the problems of an increasingly aging population and an expected shortage of workforce during 2050-70.

It is true that Shanghai has been graying rapidly since it became the first aging society on the Chinese mainland in 1979. The number of people over 60 years old had exceeded 3 million by the end of 2008. They account for 21 percent of those with a local hukou, or permanent residence permit. That puts Shanghai on par with countries like Japan and Sweden, which have the highest percentage of aging population in the world.

The aging population in Shanghai is expected to grow even bigger. It is estimated that the total number of people over 65 will account for half of the population with a local hukou by 2030.

While having more than one child might mean more care for senior citizens from their children, this alone cannot solve the problem. For years, cities like Shanghai have been ill prepared to cope with their graying population.

Given the city's spectacular economic growth in the last two decades, Shanghai still suffers from a severe shortage of infrastructure, such as adequate senior citizens' homes, community workers, caregivers and proper medical services. Therefore, having more children alone may not help solve these problems, unless governments and communities make provisions for the vast number of senior citizens an integral part of their developmental plans.

Shanghai's second concern - shortage of workforce two decades from now - could be taken care of by people from other parts of China. By the end of last year, people living or working in Shanghai without a hukou numbered 6.42 million - a third of the city's population. In the circumstances, it's not convincing to argue about a city's population problem without keeping the national picture in mind.

More than 60 percent of the 1.3 billion Chinese live in the countryside, where population growth puts a lot of pressure on the nation. Besides the deep-rooted tradition of producing a male heir to carry on the family line, a serious lack of social security, education and medical resources should be held responsible for this situation.

A proper approach to the population problem is to improve social security in the vast countryside to ease the concerns of farmers. More resources should be invested in education in the countryside. Women with better education tend to have fewer children.

China's population is an impediment to sustainable growth and improved livelihood. Cities and countryside should tackle the aging population problem with better social security and more facilities and services for the elders, instead of simply encouraging people to have more children.

(China Daily 07/24/2009 page8)