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Experts should not jump to conclusions

(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-06-30 07:55

Shortly after a 13-story apartment building collapsed in Shanghai, Jin Longzhe, a professor in Beijing's University of Science and Technology, blamed geology as the main reason for the collapse. Jin's contention was issued even before the official investigation was over, making people feel he had been too hasty in his conclusion, says an article in the Yangtze Evening News. Excerpt:

A 13-story residential building under construction collapsed in Shanghai's Minhang district on June 27, something that is unprecedented in recent history. We don't need experts to tell us that geological features of the land might have had something to do with the collapse. But it would be wrong to blame geology alone for the disaster.

No seismic or other geological activities have been reported in the region. That means something might have been wrong with the soil.

And if it was, the real estate developer should have checked and fixed it before starting construction. The collapse could have been averted had the developer and regulator paid proper attention to geological problems.

When an under-construction metro tunnel collapsed in Hangzhou last year, some experts had blamed geological reasons, too. But investigation revealed that reckless planning, hasty construction agenda, arbitrary decision-making and ignoring the signs of danger were responsible for the tragedy. Similar reasons could be responsible in Shanghai's case, too.

Investigations into such disasters should focus on human error because that holds the key. In these days of scientific advancement it is not difficult to find the dangers geology poses before starting work. The problem lies with the complicated nature of human error. In such situations, experts should not jump to hasty conclusions because their views could misguide the public and prove counterproductive.

(China Daily 06/30/2009 page9)