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Eco-redemption song echoes across Earth

By Lau Nai-keung (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-06-05 07:52

Today is World Environmental Day. The day is especially important this year because the vital UN Climate Change Conference will be held in Copenhagen on December 7 to finalize a treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. Officials from about 200 countries will assemble in the Danish capital to try and iron out a strategy to save the world from global warming, the gravest threat humankind has ever faced.

The good news is that US President Barack Obama has reversed his predecessor George W. Bush's stance and accepted that global warming is indeed man-made, and the excessive amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) we have been emitting into the atmosphere is to blame for the crisis. He has accepted, too, that if we continue to emit GHG at the present level it could threaten all life on the planet. And there seems to be a consensus among countries now that GHG emissions have to be reduced, and reduced fast.

But which country cuts how much emission?

The Western media have propagated that "Chinese have felt (so far) that they have a moral right for their economy to grow unchecked, and their carbon emissions to grow with it; but many Americans have felt (so far) that they see no reason to act unilaterally to cut their own GHG emission if the Chinese are not willing to do the same".

The fact is that in 2006 when the 11th Five-Year Plan was announced, China set strict emission targets, even though it was not obligated to do so under the Kyoto Protocol, which the US signed but did not ratify. China is to reduce its energy consumption per unit GDP by 20 percent by 2010. And official figures show that by the end of last year, China's national energy consumption per unit GDP fell by 10.1 percent, equal to 750 million tons of GHG emission, or more than 50 percent of the target.

The US is home to less than 5 percent of the world population, yet it consumes 27 percent of the annual global oil production, and in 2006, it emitted 23 percent of the world's GHG. Although China now emits almost as much GHG as the US, history tells us the cumulative emission of the Americans is way, way more than China.

Besides, the per capita GHG emission of the Americans is more than seven times that of the Chinese. Now that China, the largest developing country, has cut more than its share of GHG emission voluntarily, there should be no excuse for the US, or any other developed nation, to play politics with the environment. After all, the developed nations are responsible to lead the planet to such a pass because of their emission over the past 300 years.

Many experts believed, or liked to believe, that climate change runs in very long cycles - of hundreds of years - but scientific studies have more than shattered that belief. Climate reversals take place not as depicted in the Hollywood blockbuster, The Day After Tomorrow, but within a few years. Glaciers around the world are melting faster than ever, and so is the Arctic ice sheet. But despite that, GHG emissions have increased far beyond the threshold recommended by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Even if we cut GHG emissions to the IPCC-recommended level now, we will still see at least a 1.3 C rise in temperature above the pre-industrial period. The sea level is rising, and low-lying countries such as the Maldives may soon be found only on old maps. Extreme weathers with heavy rainfall, alternating with long dry bouts and severe cyclones will become more common. Every sign indicates that we could soon pass the point of no return.

A 2 C rise in temperature is generally regarded as the threshold. If it rises above that humans and many other creatures could soon become history. In fact, prominent environmental scientists such as James Lovelock of Gaia fame suspect we have already bypassed the limit because temperature is bound to rise more than 5 C above the pre-industrial level by the end of this century.

This calls for immediate action. Some scientists say the world has to prevent any further increase in GHG in five years, and then reduce it by as much as 80 percent by 2050 to prevent global temperature from rising more than 2 C. But that seems highly improbable given the existing international situation. Still, any agreement for concerted effort is always better than none.

According to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol, European countries and the US are historically the largest GHG emitters - and still very large emitters. So logically speaking, they should take greater responsibility in fighting climate change. That is not to say China should shy away from its responsibility. But it is pretty clear who the culprits of climate change are and who are its victims.

Moreover, if the developed world is indeed sincere about seeking remission for its past and present eco-sins, it should stop using green barriers to hinder the development of developing countries. Instead, it should make its advanced technologies easily available to them so that they can develop with emitting as little GHG as possible. Only that can be a workable solution to fight global warming.

China will continue to play its part, standing firmly with other developing nations at the Copenhagen conference to fight for a green and fair world in the true spirit of peace and development.

The author is a member of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Basic Law Committee of the National People's Congress Standing Committee

(China Daily 06/05/2009 page8)