OPINION> Dylan Quinnell
Realistic expectations
By Dylan Quinnell (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-11-04 14:23

"First they laugh at you,

Then they hit you,

Then you've won" - Mahatma Ghandi talking about change.

In less than two days time the wait will be over, and we'll know for better or worse.

My friends and most politically aware people will know what I'm talking about, since it is almost all I've been talking about for the past two months.

In less than 48 hours we will know who will be the 44th President of United States of America.

If you have read my earlier columns you will also know I am an ardent supporter of Barak Obama, and trust me with the amount of time I have spent watching and reading about the campaign, speeches and policies, I consider it well thought out support.

I believe that even for his few mistakes and perhaps comparative political inexperience, a man that can inspire a nation of people who previously lost interest in a political system, where they felt unable to change anything, certainly deserves a second look.

I believe Obama has shown that he truly cares about the wellbeing of all America's citizens, and if that's not a president's job I don't know what is.

However, as starry eyed and idealistic as I am, I sadly am no longer naïve. I know, and have been reminded, that Obama is only a man. To make matters worse, should he be announced the victor on Wednesday (Beijing time) he will be given his power by a political system that is set up to resist drastic change, for better or worse.

At the same time he will have to balance the needs of an economy in crisis, made up of businesses and corporations, with the needs of people struggling to keep there homes and get decent, affordable medical care.

Just look at the example of Australia. When the new Chinese-speaking Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was elected, I thought the world was truly moving forward. Here was a man who not only promised to, but, actually apologised to the indigenous Aboriginals for past wrongs on his second day in office. And, on his first major overseas trip, he ratified the Kyoto Protocol, again as promised in his election campaign. Though his actions were inspiring, that soon came to a swift halt.

Australia faces a major crisis. The longest river – in the world's driest country – no longer reaches the sea. The mighty Murray River has been overused and mismanaged for years and you would think that an agent of change and self-styled environmental protector would have done something by now.

Not that he hasn't tried, but Rudd has come up against a system with endless "checks, balances and veto's" in which state governments have power over the river while it is in their state, regardless of what it does to the river or leaves the state next door. The unfortunate thing is that democracy puts state governments in a situation where it is in their interest to try and stall programs that propose to manage their water usage. Otherwise, the people who voted them into power and rely on the river, like the famers, certainly won't be voting them in next time round.

This might be a sign of what's to come if Obama gets to the White House.

His vision of change will not only collide with these speed bumps, built into democracy to make sure no one person or party has too much power, but he will also come up against those vested interests in keeping things the way they are, like the oil and tobacco companies.

We have to make sure we have realistic expectations or there are going to be a lot of disappointed people come next year.

As much as I love him and truly think he could be a world-changing leader, I will also draw your attention to the fact that first and foremost he is a proud American. As much as people outside of the US believe Obama will be an agent of change, he is not president of the world. If he has a tough decision to make, his own people will be his top priority. At the same time if you listened to his speeches, he might have said he would speak to the leaders of Iran and North Korea without pre-conditions (how could this possibly be a controversial idea?). But, he has also said he would invade the Pakistani tribal regions – without Pakistani approval – if he had trustworthy intelligence that Osama bin Laden was hiding there. Do not expect any major change in his foreign policy, except of course that in his words he would never have invaded Iraq in the first place. But that's already done.

I would, however, argue that when you have a world that respects you before you are even president, something George W Bush can only dream of, it does make it that much easier to solve problems.

All things considered, a man who would create change simply by being elected, can leave people believing there is a better way and believes in inherent human dignity and rights certainly has a chance of bringing about a vastly better world.

Just make sure your expectations are realistic because change is never easy, and Obama is only human.

Contact the writer: Dylan.quinnell@gmail.com